Administrator
I am surprised they don't like that. If you lose with team A then you kill a good percentage of cards. I guess if you get all 8 right then you are rich.
NOTE: Any game or total resulting in a “push” or tie vs. The point spread reduces the parlay one notch. For example, a 5-team parlay with 4 winners and 1 “push” becomes a 4-team parlay. A 2-team parlay with 1 winner and 1 “push” is considered a straight bet. Parlay card payouts. Payouts on a 2 team parlay are standard throughout the industry at 13/5. Sportsbooks will pay $2.64 for every $1.00 wagered.
That is what happened to me at the Suncoast in week 2 -- hit all of them.
The issue at play is the casinos know what we know. They must still offer them because they get enough square action to offset the people that pick only the hot sides. However, casinos never like any advantage play, no matter how small of a percentage of their gross gaming action it is.
In this case, I don't think it is a round robin they object to, as those are welcomed in keno, but the teams in the round robin.
Administrator
Just catching up on this. Good stuff. My question though is, how do you determine Bills +3.5 'is the strongest play'?
I don't remember what the line was on the game, but if it was Bill +3 -110, then getting that half extra point is very valuable off of 3, the most common margin of victory in the NFL by far. You can see from my page alternate point spreads that if a spread is fair at +3, then you have a 54.8% chance of winning at +3.5.
When you compound that extra chance of winning over many games, it significantly increases your probability of winning.
For example, on a random 6-teamer, the probability of winning would be (0.5)^6 = 1 in 64.
If we just assume a 53% chance of winning each leg, with the extra half points, the probability of winning a six teamer is 1 in 45. At the South Point and William Hill casinos a 6-teamer pays 50 for 1, for a player advantage of 10.8%. Try getting that in video poker.
If we just assume a 53% chance of winning each leg, with the extra half points, the probability of winning a six teamer is 1 in 45. At the South Point and William Hill casinos a 6-teamer pays 50 for 1, for a player advantage of 10.8%. Try getting that in video poker.
Half Point Parlay Card
There seems to be something wrong with that logic. With the 'round robin' are you reducing it down to a player advantage on what should be an even money payout to one(the overall wagered amount) where said player has a 10.8% advantage?
You can ask Mission what happened when I asked him and his ex-wife to do that. I'll just tell you. With Mission the supervisor barked at him 'Don't ever come in here with a round robin again!' and then threw all the tickets in the trash. With Mission's wife at the time I sent her to a buddy of mine as I watched from afar. He thumbed through them and said he wasn't taking any. When she asked why, he just said, 'You can go now.' I'm sure Mission could tell the story better.
In general, I think they can sense when a beard, who doesn't know a parlay card from a keno ticket, is putting them in, and they don't like it.
I resent that, I might not know a parlay card from a horse racing ticket, but you can bet your bottom dollar I can spot a Keno ticket from a mile away!
44-53-54-55-63-64-65....ONE TIME, BABY!!!!
Happened, too, at Cannery. $0.02 won $140.00 on that particular card.
Here's my take on it just a few days after the incident at Fremont from earlier in this thread:
For anyone who doubts whether or not there can be any heat on these half-point parlay cards, as I related in my trip report:
I went over to Fremont from the Chicago Brew Pub at Four Queens looking to run a few hundred dollars worth of half-point parlay cards for Wizard. The guy whose job it is to run the tickets through the machine looked at a few of the tickets, I hadn't said anything, and looks back up at me and says, 'Excuse me.'
I nodded and he walked over to a guy who I don't remember much about except that he was bigger, perhaps my height, with facial hair.
The second guy said, 'We don't accept Round Robins, here, buddy.'
I replied, 'What's a Round Robin? I don't understand what you mean. I'm just taking a shot! The D just took the same bet!'
He reiterated, 'Well, this is a Round Robin, and don't ever come in here and try this again,' then he ripped the bet cards in half and threw them in the trash.
'Scared to bet me? Cowards!'
That's it, they couldn't have known me because I had never made a Sports Bet there in my entire life.
I think the thing that surprised Wizard the most was that he was able to rip that thick stack of cards in half.
I don't seem to have much luck at the Fremont. I've never even received any offers from there even though I was there more days (both trips) and my ADT is probably higher there than at Gold Coast, to which I only went once, and I still get regular offers from Gold Coast.
Administrator
There seems to be something wrong with that logic. With the 'round robin' are you reducing it down to a player advantage on what should be an even money payout to one(the overall wagered amount) where said player has a 10.8% advantage?
I'm not sure I'm following your argument why I'm in error.
Delaware Half Point Parlay Card Works
Administrator
How hard is it for casinos to update lines on parlay cards these days? Couldn't each card be printed on demand rather than early in the week?
I suppose they could do that. However, people might hoard the old cards and turn them in late. I don't think it would be worth the trouble to do multiple printings.
There seems to be something wrong with that logic. With the 'round robin' are you reducing it down to a player advantage on what should be an even money payout to one(the overall wagered amount) where said player has a 10.8% advantage?
I don't know if this helps or not, but one method to determine the player (or house) advantage is with this formula:
(Amount risked x -1) x (chance of losing) + (payout when you do win) x (chance of winning)
It's well known that the house edge in double zero roulette is 5.26%. To see how that number was arrived at, try the formula:
Parlay Cards Now
-1 x (37/38) + 35 x 1/38 = -0.0526 = -5.26%The probability of winning a 6-leg parlay is the product of each individual probability. If we calcualte that to be approximately 53% with the extra half points, that's (53/100)^6 which is .02216. (This is approximately the same as 44 to 1.)
So, now we just enter the numbers in our formula. (If a 6-teamer pays 50 FOR 1 that's the same as 49 TO 1.)
Half Point Parlay Cards
-1 x (1 - .02216) + 49 x .02216 = +0.108 = +10.8%So this means each individual parlay card played has a player advantage of +10.8%. (I think.)
I suppose they could do that. However, people might hoard the old cards and turn them in late. I don't think it would be worth the trouble to do multiple printings.
I'm surprised they even have paper cards nowadays and not all betting terminals and phone apps. Then they could just change everything instantly.