Handicapping Tips: OVER/UNDER Strategy As a sports bettor, you need to do some homework. Don’t worry, it’s not as intense as anything you had to do in high school – you’re simply handicapping your totals bets enough to make smart picks. The most popular Under 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy is very similar to Over 2.5 strategy, but this time we are going to back Under 2.5 goals and make some Cover bets in Correct score market on few scorelines that are over 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 Goals Betting Strategy When it comes to the most appealing of these two betting options, more people will prefer to bet on over 2.5 goal rather than under it. This means you are betting on a game being exciting with goals and plenty of chances, rather than betting on it being a boring, dull affair.
Mastering over/under bets, also known as totals, isn’t as complicated as most people think. With decent knowledge about the league in question, the competing teams, their starting lineups and previous matches, over/under bets can quickly become a steady source of betting profit. Lots of betting experts use these bets to their advantage for that particular reason.
If you can dedicate the time and effort to explore these stats and numbers, chances are your betting slips will be fuming with totals-based returns.
However, you’ll still need to come up with a proper over/under betting strategy so you can set up goals and milestones for your betting campaigns.
Additionally, you’ll also need some sort of a guide to help you make use of all those numbers. Number crunching for the sake of number crunching means nothing in the world of sports betting. You need to understand what you’re dealing with to make the best approach at each particular match.
The number-crunching game is pretty much identical across all sports. They all have a certain number of quantifiable in-game stats you need to go through. When it comes to mastering over/under bets, depending on the specific type of o/u wager you opt for, you’ll have to assess teams’ goalscoring and defensive capabilities, chance creation, and average number of scored/conceded goals.
What are Over/Under Bets?
When it comes to mastering over/under bets, we need to start from the sports betting basics and learn our way up to advanced betting tips!
Over/under bets, AKA totals, are based on various quantifiable in-game occurrences. These are not your typical yes/no bets. Instead, sports betting sites specify a number, and you have to guess whether or not that in-game occurrence (for example, goals) will be higher or lower than the number specified by the bookie.
| Team | Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
| Chelsea | +1½ (-112) | Over 3 (-135) | +689 |
| Bayern Munich | -1½ (-103) | Under 3 (+120) | -280 |
That’s basically the whole concept behind these bets.
Now, there are several options to choose from, and they all vary from sport to sport.
For the sake of keeping this guide as simple as possible, we’re going to be focusing solely on soccer. It’s the perfect sport for over/under bets as it has a ton of in-game occurrences.
That said, let’s check out the most popular soccer-based o/u options!
- Goals are the most popular o/u wagers for soccer since they’re easy to track and don’t require a ton of stats crawling. There are also several variations, such as total goals in the first half, total goals in the second half, and overall total goals. Make sure you know what you’re betting on before you invest too much money and end up squandering it!
- Yellow cards are popular too. They’re also quite easy to track, but you’ll often find yourself switching from one place to another to collect all numbers properly. Talking about cards, red-card-based totals are also available, but they usually have 0.5 as the default value, and it’s more like a yes or no bet, to be frank.
- Corners are essential set pieces, and physically powerful teams heavily rely on them. It’s quite challenging to make a long-term success with corner totals, but it’s doable. With a ton of stats crawling and league know-how, corner totals can become your go-to bet type for quick returns.
- Offsides is an o/u bet variation that isn’t as popular as the ones described above. Still, lots of soccer betting sites feature it so it’s worth
Mastering Over/Under Bets
The best thing about totals is their complete independence from typical match winner betting. These bets allow you to bet on matches without having to choose between team A or team B. You’re betting on the overall flow of the game, certain in-game occurrences that affect the game but aren’t reflecting the losing on winning teams.
However, you’ll still have to assess and analyze both teams as well as their past matches, track records, starting rosters, and so forth.
Additionally, you’ll also have to keep track of their injuries, fatigue levels, and team morale. Factors such as these can significantly influence the overall performance of a given team and impact your over/under wagers.
Mastering over/under bets requires a lot of hard work and even more stats crawling. Not sure which stats to analyze? Here’s a quick list of the most important ones:
Defensive/Offensive Records
Whether you are thinking of betting on total goals, yellow cards, corners, or anything else, the first thing on your bucket ought to be extensive research. As with everything else in the world of soccer betting, totals require a hefty amount of stats crawling and number crunching.
When it comes to total goals, the first thing you should analyze is defensive and offensive records of both teams.
Calculate the median number of goals in their last five/ten matches (or from the start of the season) and work your magic from there.
Another thing to keep in mind is roster changes. Even though this is more of an issue in sports with fewer players where each individual contributes more to the team, it still works in soccer. Moreover, check the injury lists, schedule (if it’s too tight, fatigue can be an issue), and everything player-related that could influence the overall score.
In other words, total goals under seems like the ideal option here.
If, however, both Messi and Suarez are playing and the opposing team can’t count on their starting defensive duo, total goals over should be the go-to option. There are many more examples such as these two, so stay on the lookout for anything and everything that can affect the match you want to bet on.
Match Importance
Match importance plays a vital role in teams’ approaches. You have to recognize such contests and adapt your wagers to match the tensions. Perhaps not so much in league competition, though, unless we’re talking about final fixtures that decide European championships or titles. Group stage plus playoffs are a completely different pair of shoes, with crucial matches (both 1-leg and 2-leg playoffs) that determine which teams go home and which advance to the next stage.
Additionally, high profile matches, those featuring title contestants, are often underwhelming as far as goals are concerned.
It doesn’t happen in every game, but it’s still the case more often than not. In such contests, teams take extra defensive measures and don’t focus their gameplay solely on the attacking end. In other words, be cautious when betting over on high profile matches.
Make sure all stats point towards a high-scoring match. Otherwise, you might be better off with under or skipping the game altogether.
Weather Conditions
The last thing we’d like to emphasize here are weather conditions and their effects on games. Typically, bettors believe hot weather results in more goals than rainy/cold weather. However, recent Premier League stats show absolutely no proof of relation between sunny/rainy days and the number of scored goals.
However, too much rain can affect other totals, and mastering over/under bets will require you to understand the trends. For instance, too much rain can be detrimental to teams who practice quick passing style of play. If the pitch gets waterlogged, the ball can’t travel as far as it usually does, which can drastically affect the match and teams’ ability to control the passage of play in midfield.
Additionally, overly hot weather (something which could be a problem in 2022 Qatar World Cup) results in players getting fatigued much earlier than usual. We’re talking both defenders and attackers. Typically, matches played in extreme heat often result in less energetic performances.
If you want to increase your chances of winning over/under wagers, you have to take into account situations such as these. Extreme weather conditions, match importance, competition stage, and defensive/offensive records are just the tip of the iceberg. For those who want even more, you can always check out our in-depth over/under betting guide that features a ton of supporting info.
Over/Under Betting Strategy
Over Under Basketball Strategy
As far as over/under strategy goes, there’s no one size fits all kind of deal. It all depends on the amount of time and money you’re willing to dedicate to betting, and your current knowledge about the league, competition, and sport you’re going to bet on.
Generally speaking, sticking to a high-quality soccer betting strategy ought to yield positive results.
However, if you’re planning to base all of your betting endeavors on totals, mastering over/under bets and adapting your soccer betting strategy of choice will be of crucial importance.
Bankroll management and understanding totals’ value should be your primary concerns. Once you get that rolling, the rest of your soccer betting strategy will fall right into place.
Expert Tips on Mastering Over/Under Bets
Crunching crucial numbers and coming up with (and then following) a betting strategy are great ways to increase your chances of winning. However, there are more things you can do to ensure your long-term profitability.
Here are three additional tips on mastering over/under bets that ought to make a proper betting expert out of you!
Keep Tabs on Line Movement
There’s no clear and cut method of approaching line movement, especially when it comes to totals.
Bookies adjust their odds and numbers depending on the amount of money bet on both ends, and it’s on you to make the best out of the current situation.
Quite often, the line movement will shift back and forth, and you’ll have to time your bets to get the best odds.
With high profile matches, there’s a simple rule of thumb that can help you recognize trends and act accordingly. Most casual bettors (and believe it or not, they’re the majority) take their time with bets.
They usually wait until the last day to lock their choices in.
That’s a well-known fact. However, it’s not that well-known that casual bettors love betting on overs. This, combined with casual bettors’ love for high profile matches results in significant line movements near the start of the match.
Well, if you’re thinking of betting over on a specific high-profile match, you should always do so as early as you can. Since the majority of bettors will be over on the same day (or the day before the match), bookies will adjust the odds accordingly. If, on the other hand, you want to bet under, betting late is the obvious way to go.
Find the Best Possible Totals
Sticking with mediocre soccer betting sites is one of the most common mistakes bettors do. It doesn’t matter if you’re a casual or a hardcore bettor, finding the best possible bookie is the best decision you can make before placing your bets.
As far as mastering over/under bets goes, finding the best possible totals is of crucial importance.
Moreover, we are not just referring to odds here; we are referring to the totals numbers specified by bookies as well.
Always try to find the best balance in terms of betting odds and totals numbers. By doing so, you’ll yield more significant profits and will have much higher chances of becoming profitable in the long run.
Stay Away from Odds or Evens
There’s another, unfortunately popular, totals variation that doesn’t allow you to choose between over and under. Instead, it allows you to choose either odd or even.
Obviously, these types of bets are based solely on luck and have no value as far as long-term profitability goes.
That said, you should stay away from them at all cost.
Even though they might seem entertaining to follow, they could end up costing you a ton of nerves, and even worse, a ton of money.
Over/under Betting Strategy
Final Thoughts on Over/Under Betting
Even though mastering over/under bets isn’t as complicated as most people think, it still requires much hard work. The number-crunching process is often time-consuming, which is why casual bettors don’t invest that much time in their picks.
Over Under Strategy
If you’re thriving to become a professional sports betting expert, our mastering over/under bets guide should be a great starting point. With tips on assessing the crucial factors, betting strategy creation and advanced o/u tricks, you should be all set for your over/under betting future!
Betting Against the Public
Over Under Strategy
In many cases, the general public is clueless when it comes to betting the point spread or over/unders. There are a few reasons for that. First off, most people are too biased for sports betting. And others are far too influenced by ESPN and Fox Sports pundits that really don’t know what they’re talking about.
You’ll often notice that the public favors teams the mainstream media adores. In 2018, for example, Wisconsin (4-9), Michigan State (4-9), and USC (4-8) were among the teams with the worst records in college football against the spread. That’s because they were overhyped and, thus, were bet on heavily.
When it comes to betting football totals, you should look to bet against the public, and that means mostly betting unders. Not always, but more often than not. The reason for that is most bettors like betting the over. Why? Because watching teams score a lot of points is more entertaining than a 14-13 defensive slugfest.
When the public is hammering the over, the totals will eventually rise to a point that makes the under profitable.